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Five Steps to Becoming a Superforecaster (JUST ADDED)



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Brier Scores Resources
Wikepidia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

Good Judgment Open for how it’s used there for forecaster feedbackhttps://www.gjopen.com/faq
Primer by UVAhttps://data.library.virginia.edu/a-brief-on-brier-scores/
Machine Learning: https://neptune.ai/blog/brier-score-and-model-calibration

Credits: CTP: 1.2 | FPAC: 1.2
Are you a Superforecaster? Join Good Judgment CEO, Dr. Warren Hatch, for an interactive primer on the groundbreaking approach to probabilistic prediction that is changing the way governments, corporations, and individuals think about the future. Based on the research from the Good Judgment Project and chronicled the bestselling book, Superforecasting, you will learn steps to boost forecast accuracy, including the use of base rates, de-biasing techniques, and noise-reduction tools that improve early foresight. Attendees are encouraged to ask questions and make interactive comments throughout the discussion. The program also includes an optional "Forecasting Aptitude Survey," which measures personality characteristics that correlate with superior forecasting. 

Learning objectives
- Learn evidence-based steps to improve your forecasting accuracy 
- Learn how to distill the best possible wisdom of the crowd.
 
This recording was originally delivered live on Thursday, October 28, 2021 and is now available to you as a convenient and cost-effective way to support your learning and development while also earning CTP, CCM and/or FPAC credits.

Credits Confirmation
Take the quiz that appears at the conclusion of the recording within your recertification cycle to earn eligible credits. Once you’ve successfully completed the quiz, you will be prompted to complete a brief Credits Request Form. Following the completion of this form, an email confirmation of credits earned and directions to post your credits in the Recertification Reporting Tool will be sent to you for your records. If you attended the live version of this webinar, you cannot earn credit for the recorded as well.

Speakers

  • Warren Hatch
    CEO
    Good Judgement, Inc.
  • Eric Ellis
    Vice President, Finance & Strategy
    National Restaurant Association
  • Bryan Lapidus, FPAC
    Director, FP&A Practice
    AFP